SWOD48
SPC AC 300846
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
..SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE
EVOLUTION OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES...WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLE DRYING/STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO BE ALREADY UNDERWAY BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY. THUS...WHILE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW COULD DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS REGION BY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A
SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS RATHER MINOR AT BEST.
.KERR.. 10/30/2007
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