SWODY3
SPC AC 300622
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTING STREAMS OF FLOW NEAR
SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS INDICATE
THAT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE
STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WITH ONE TROUGH PROGGED
TO LIFT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND ANOTHER PROGGED TO DIG FROM THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. AS THIS
OCCURS...BROAD TROUGHING...WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
IMPULSES...WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
STREAM...FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAMS...
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. BUT...WITH A SERIES OF COLD/DRY
INTRUSIONS CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES...IN THE WAKE
OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
AND...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
.KERR.. 10/30/2007
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