SWODY2
SPC AC 241729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN AL...GA AND
SC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG/POWERFUL UPPER JET CURRENTLY ARRIVING ACROSS ORE/NRN
CA WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS
TROUGH/LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND SWING INTO THE MID/
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOWER-AMPLITUDE
WAVE...NOW MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...MAY DAMPEN SOME AS IT
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z TUESDAY.
...ERN GULF COAST/SERN STATES...
GREATER DESTABILIZATION/INSTABILITY IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SERN STATES...AND THUS A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THIS
REGION.
STRONGER FORCING SHOULD MOVE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST UVVS SPREADING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SERN STATES ON MONDAY. A COMPLEX OF TSTMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. UVVS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN MAINTAINING
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN/SRN PERIPHERIES OF THE
MORNING ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EWD.
DESPITE A POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDINESS...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT MOISTENING BENEATH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPPING SUGGESTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS EWD FROM THE ONGOING MORNING ACTIVITY...WITH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON DURING MAX
DESTABILIZATION. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
...NERN MO/ERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI/WRN/NWRN IL...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAPID ATMOSPHERIC MASS ADJUSTMENTS
TAKING PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG UPPER JET SPREADS INTO THE
REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. 15 MB/12 HR SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ARE SUGGESTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 26/00-12Z WITH 972 MB LOW
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI BY 12Z TUESDAY.
WHILE THE LEAD WAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A TEMPORARY SWD
DISPLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A LATE SURGE OF 50S AND 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. AS
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE-TILT SYSTEM
SPREADS TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS...BANDS OF CONVECTION/TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO EVOLVE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/W OF THE MS
RIVER FROM NRN AR NWD INTO MN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
AND SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG A STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT. A ROGUE TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM ERN IA/NWRN IL SWD WHERE 0-1KM
SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE 250 M2/S2 AND MUCAPE WILL BE GREATEST /AROUND
500 J PER KG/.
..PETERS.. 10/24/2010
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