WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 707

WWUS20 KWNS 241854
SEL7
SPC WW 241854
ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS TO 65 MILES SOUTH OF LONGVIEW TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE ZONES OF TSTM GENESIS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...1) ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN TX...AND 2) WITHIN
FREE-WARM SECTOR ALONG ENHANCED BANDS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THE
AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F. WHEN
COUPLED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES FROM THE W...ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/I.E. MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMUM/...SETUP WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

...MEAD

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