MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1724

ACUS11 KWNS 152218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152217
TXZ000-152345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152217Z - 152345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ANOTHER FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL TX. STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LACK OF MORE ORGANIZED/LONGER DURATION THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX HAVE CONGEALED INTO A
MULTICELL CLUSTER OVER THE LAST HOUR. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A LONG LIVED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KT
SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS STORMS PROGRESS TO THE E/SE...LACK OF UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND WEAKENING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
ORGANIZATION. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES /PER 22Z MESOANALYSIS
AND MORNING REGIONAL RAOBS/ COULD AID IN WATER LOADING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN ADDITION TO LIMITING UPDRAFT
LONGEVITY/STRENGTH...WILL ALSO LIMIT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. MARGINAL
NATURE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHORT DURATION OF ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH...BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 08/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29839921 29629833 30099766 30899740 31609742 32309744
32919769 33189836 33029903 31399992 30490042 30050017
29839921

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