MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1723

ACUS11 KWNS 152028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152028
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-152200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152028Z - 152200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEB AND
NW KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS NCNTRL
KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MESONALYSIS ESTIMATING
MLCAPE NOW IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. A CLUSTER OF SFC-BASED
STORMS IS ALREADY INTENSIFYING IN CLAY COUNTY KS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
SALINA ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED MCV EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL CLOUD STREETS
OF CUMULUS ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SW NEB. THE WRF-HRRR
DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 22Z AND
23Z AND MOVES STRONG CONVECTION SSEWD ACROSS NW KS. THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE
GOODLAND WSR-88D VWP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS CELL COVERAGE INCREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF A
COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39850181 40070156 40400142 40710126 40850075 40659992
40419905 40199847 40139743 40009666 39599614 39099610
38649639 38449722 38499765 38519863 38420058 38660192
39150228 39850181

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