SWODY1
SPC AC 010532
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
OFFSHORE AS WELL. UPPER RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...AS PHASING UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE CNTRL STATES
PROGRESS EWD. A STRONGER SRN STREAM WAVE OVER WRN TX WILL QUICKLY
EJECT EWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL
GRADUALLY SAG SEWD. FARTHER WEST...A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SHIFT ONSHORE...BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT.
...NERN TX INTO WRN TN/NRN MS...
A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS CONTRIBUTING TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY /AS OF 05Z/...WITH DEW POINTS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...BY 12Z...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO VEER TO WSWLY...KEEPING RICHER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE GULF AS
WELL AS SHUNTED EWD WHERE A LACK OF UPPER FORCING EXISTS.
NONETHELESS...ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...THE SUSTENANCE OF
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHERE INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
OCCUR AS A LOWER LATITUDE UPPER WAVE TRAVERSES TX THEN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH SHALLOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR POCKETS OF CLEARING AND GREATER SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NERN TX INTO WRN TN AND FAR NRN MS.
HERE...SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND MUDDLED/WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...A MORE ROBUST
DMGG WIND THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED PER UPSTREAM 00Z
RAOBS/ ARE ADVECTING EWD...AND MAY DELAY SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT HAIL FORMATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...AND AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVE.
..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 02/01/2012
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