SWODY2
SPC AC 010653
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...
...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL-DEVELOPED 40 TO 55 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SW OK
SWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED
IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR ABILENE THURSDAY EVENING SHOW THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH MLCAPE OF 1200 O 1500 J/KG...40
TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS. IF THE ACTIVITY CAN BECOME SFC-BASED...THEN A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SW
OK...THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.
AT THIS POINT...THE MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS STORMS FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE GFS IS FURTHER EAST. HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISED
SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE NAM. THIS BRINGS THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND EXTENDS THE SLIGHT SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS MAY APPROACH 60 F.
..BROYLES.. 02/01/2012
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