SWODY1
SPC AC 011257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST TODAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER OK/N TX TODAY...REACHING
AR THIS EVENING AND THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. ONLY A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED...AS A DIFFUSE SURFACE
WAVE MIGRATES EWD ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT FROM AR TODAY TO VA/NC
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F HAVE SPREAD AS FAR N AS EXTREME
NE TX AND SRN AR...WITH MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE...A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER NE TX...INDICATIVE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE GRADUALLY BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS AR...WHERE CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN MLCAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DEEP-LAYER WINDS
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE
MID-UPPER TROUGH...WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT
LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES E OF THE INSTABILITY
AXIS BY EARLY TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND STORM COVERAGE...THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW
HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES.
FARTHER S...AN ONGOING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EWD ACROSS SRN MS/SW AL TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
SWD AND WWD ACROSS SRN LA AND SE TX AS THE LOW LEVELS
WARM/DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH EWD
EXTENT AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THIS MORNING ACROSS SE MS. LATER AND FARTHER W...NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING
GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BY AFTERNOON ACROSS LA/SE
TX...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 02/01/2012
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