SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011618
ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-011815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...AR...NERN TX...NRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011618Z - 011815Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK
WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR MUCH OF AR AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW HOURS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW NEAR THE METROPLEX...ALONG A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD INTO WRN AR. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
AREAS OF CLEARING WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S F.
VERY COOL AIR IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA ALOFT...RESULTING
IN STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE CAPPING POTENTIAL...SUGGESTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 70S F WILL TOTALLY REMOVE INHIBITION.
AS ONGOING STORMS APPROACH THE DESTABILIZING INSTABILITY AXIS...THEY
MAY INTENSIFY. OTHER VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. FAVORABLY LONG HODOGRAPHS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A LOT OF HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE.
..JEWELL.. 02/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32869621 33369607 34619535 35269507 36179449 36189339
35389164 34809117 33989104 33109127 32209196 31919345
31929487 32059571 32419607 32869621
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