SWODY1
SPC AC 011623
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
TX...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHERN LA...
...ARKLATEX REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET
WILL TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BROKEN SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1500 J/KG AND ONLY MINIMAL CAP.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
OK ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY SPREAD INTO AR.
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHEAST TX...MOVING INTO NORTHERN LA BY EVENING. A MIXED
MODE OF CELLULAR AND LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY...WITH
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL.
REFER TO MCD NUMBER 0084 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 02/01/2012
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