SWOD48
SPC AC 010948
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL
STATES ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS THE
MID-MS VALLEY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AS FAR NORTH AS TN. A SEVERE THREAT MAY
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY. ON SUNDAY/DAY 5...THE
MODELS MOVE THE FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS
DISAGREE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S.
THIS MAKES UNCERTAINTY HIGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ECNTRL STATES
SUGGESTING NLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
RETURNING NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD...PREDICTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN
ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CONUS.
..BROYLES.. 02/01/2012
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