DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010819
SWODY3
SPC AC 010818

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE ERN SIDE OF
THE LOW INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM NORTH
TX NWD INTO SRN KS. A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST WITH STORMS
THAT HAVE ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. DURING THE DAY...THE
MODELS MOVE THE CONVECTION EWD ACROSS KS AND INTO ECNTRL OK WITH A
SWD EXPANSION INTO CNTRL AND EAST TX. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO BUT THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
INCLUDE TIMING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND GAGING HOW FAR
NORTH STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DALLAS CONVECT USING SFC-BASED PARCELS
SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THREAT MAY ALSO BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN ORGANIZE.
THE HAIL THREAT COULD EXTEND NNWWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO
NCNTRL OK AND SRN KS WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST IN THE CORE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS
SHOULD BE KEPT MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND ONGOING
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT IN AREAS SOUTH OF DALLAS
WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO THE LIMITED.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2012

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