SWODY2
SPC AC 011723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...OK/TX...
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE BASE
OF TRANSITORY WRN U.S. TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STRONG H5 FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 60-70KT...WILL OVERSPREAD
NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS BY 02/12Z WITH MAIN CORE OF JET EXPECTED TO
EXTEND INTO WRN OK BY SUNSET. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...LLJ
WILL FOCUS OVER NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...INCREASING MARKEDLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS TO VALUES OF 50-60KT. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR NWD
EVOLVING WARM FRONT TO REPOSITION ITSELF NEAR THE RED RIVER...WWD TO
A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL
SERVE AS THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL SURGE NWWD AS
WARM FRONT RETURNS INTO SRN OK/NWRN TX...WITH NEAR 60 DEW POINTS
POSSIBLY RETURNING TO REGIONS WELL EAST OF DRYLINE PRIOR TO TSTM
ACTIVITY. 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS A NARROW ZONE OF STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO
PORTIONS OF NWRN TX. IF LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE NAM SUGGESTS
THEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE REDUCED AND SFC PARCELS WILL
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEAR TO BE NEAR 70.
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING/SHEAR EXPECTED IT WOULD SEEM
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE NEAR/JUST SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE ADVANCING DRYLINE AROUND 22-00Z. WITH
TIME WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/CNTRL OK. ALTHOUGH
SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
WITHIN THE INITIATING ZONE...RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS
SUGGEST CLOUD BASES WILL BE REASONABLY LOW AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EVOLVE. HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL WITH UPWARD EVOLVING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL OK BY 03/12Z.
..DARROW.. 02/01/2012
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