SWODY2
SPC AC 101721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
REMAIN LARGELY ZONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS
REGIME...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
WILL SPLIT OFF THE STRONGER BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...BEFORE DIGGING
INTO TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
STREAM. CONSOLIDATION OF SEVERAL IMPULSES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS
OF IDA...IS PROGGED TO EVENTUAL CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEPENING LOWER/MID
LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY.
...FLORIDA...
WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...AND THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...BUT
WARM AND MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COUPLED WITH WEAK TO MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.
HOWEVER...TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW /NEAR OR BELOW 850 MB/
ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT COULD LINGER INTO/THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY BELT ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...AS THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IDA MIGRATES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WHILE THIS WILL NOT YIELD
PARTICULARLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL BE SIZABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF A POSITIVELY
BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F.
THUS...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE
ORLANDO/MELBOURNE AREAS.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH A RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONTINUING RISK FOR
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY BE
ENHANCED A BIT BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD COASTAL AREAS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
..KERR.. 11/10/2009
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