SWODY1
SPC AC 110056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH 70F AND GREATER SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONFINED
TO FL GULF COASTAL AREAS AND FAR EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OF ANY APPRECIABLE VIGOR STILL REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT OWING TO LIMITED
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY INLAND AND OTHERWISE NEUTRAL TO DECAY STAGE OF THE
PARENT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR CONVECTIVE WIND MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL PORTIONS OF FL. OWING TO LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/MID LEVEL
DRYING SINCE 12Z THIS MORNING...THE 00Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM
TALLAHASSEE SAMPLES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD SUPPORT A NEAR SURFACE
BASED STORM...WITH 200-250 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES/BRIEF TORNADO...ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE UPSTREAM DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR AND THE
IMPETUS FOR AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE VIGOR SEEMS LIMITED. FARTHER
SOUTH...WHILE A RICHER MARITIME MOISTURE INFLUX MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
FL WEST COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER/WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THUS KEEP THE TORNADO/WIND RISK LOW.
..GUYER.. 11/11/2009
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