MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0645

ACUS11 KWNS 152107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152107
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-152230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN PA...PORTIONS OF NRN WV...WRN
MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152107Z - 152230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WHILE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...A WW IS NOT
IMMINENT.

DISCUSSION...A CUMULUS FIELD IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED ALONG
AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WARM
SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH LIMITED
CINH. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER
WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WITH WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL SIZES POTENTIALLY REACHING SVR LEVELS. STRONG/SVR SFC WINDS MAY
ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AROUND 50 KT OF FLOW AROUND 2 KFT AGL PER CCX
VWP DATA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS/SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...OWING TO WEAK DEEP FORCING
FOR ASCENT...AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ONLY GLANCES PARTS
OF THE WARM SECTOR.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 40688028 40987876 41027753 40457698 39937708 39787753
39417958 39618072 40688028

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