MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0647

ACUS11 KWNS 152241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152240
TXZ000-OKZ000-152345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160...

VALID 152240Z - 152345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 160...WITH THE LARGEST HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS AS
WELL MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX...MONITORING FOR A
PARTIAL TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE.

DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION PRIMARILY CONCERNS NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WHERE
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF A
CLUSTERING BAND OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...CU FIELD CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST OF
WICHITA FALLS SSW TO GRAHAM AND BROWNWOOD AREAS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHWARD TOWARD
SOMEWHAT COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEST TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE NOTED NEAR/EAST OF
THE CONFLUENT AXIS...WITH A RECENT TREND OF BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
/SOUTHEASTERLY/ AND AS MUCH AS 150-175 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH PER
MODIFIED FORT WORTH WSR-88D VWP. THIS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF AT
LEAST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING...SUCH THAT A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30949913 33009829 34009791 34079710 33259639 32389662
30539749 30949913

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