MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0648

ACUS11 KWNS 160019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160018
OKZ000-TXZ000-160115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NW AND W-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160...

VALID 160018Z - 160115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN OK AND
W-CNTRL TX PORTIONS OF WW 160.

DISCUSSION...THE THREAT ACROSS WW 160 IS BIFURCATED WITH ONE REGIME
EVOLVING ACROSS SRN OK AND ANOTHER OVER W-CNTRL AND NW TX...PER
RECENT RADAR TRENDS.

1. CONSOLIDATION OF STORMS INTO A BOWING QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENT ACROSS
SRN OK HAS OCCURRED...APPROACHING THE ERN EDGE OF WW 160. RECENT
OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY ARE SUB-SEVERE...BUT SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
WEAK/BRIEF EMBEDDED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
TOWARDS SERN OK. ALTHOUGH A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM IS NOT IMMINENT AS THE
AIR MASS IS LESS UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

2. TSTMS LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO A E-W CORRIDOR ACROSS W-CNTRL
TX...S OF I-20...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION RECENTLY WITH STORM
ENTERING TAYLOR COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ERN MOVEMENT...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO TORNADO WATCH 161. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO NW TX INVOF A NWD MOVING BOUNDARY...WITH 50S
F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWWD TOWARDS CDS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 05/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32189923 32069972 31910052 31950094 32430106 33690107
34200079 34520034 34679954 34879779 34969702 35129669
35169599 34949574 34619576 34389630 34429678 34469739
34449795 33199864 32189923

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