MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0646

ACUS11 KWNS 152225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152224
TXZ000-160100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152224Z - 160100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY/WEST-CENTRAL TX AND PERHAPS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE AS WELL THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...CU FIELD HAS DEEPENED A DEGREE
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HR ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX IN GENERAL VICINITY OF A
BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION TX CORRIDOR...WITH OTHER HIGHER-BASED CU
EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX FROM BETWEEN LUBBOCK-MIDLAND SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF FORT STOCKTON/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR
SANDERSON. HEATING/MIXING ASIDE...THE HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE ENHANCED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMA/JET STREAK PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND
DATA. SIMILAR TO SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM AND HIGH-RES
WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONG/SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND OTHER PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE SOMEWHAT RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE THE CU FIELD APPEARS RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR/SOUTH OF DEL RIO...A STORM OR TWO
DEVELOPING/CROSSING THE BORDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40+ KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH SOME MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT COULD MATERIALIZE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29870091 31100035 31289850 30319828 28480017 29870091

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