SWODY1
SPC AC 061230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NERN TX ACROSS ERN
OK AND FAR WRN AR/SERN KS...
...SRN PLAINS...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...WHICH CONSISTS
OF TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS- ONE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
ANOTHER EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SRN MOST IMPULSE
HAS SUSTAINED CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARCING FROM CENTRAL
TX INTO CENTRAL OK/SWRN AND CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ON WV IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS OK/KS/NRN
TX...WHICH WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND N-S INVOF I-35 FROM CENTRAL KS INTO
N-CENTRAL TX BY LATE TODAY.
DESPITE THE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...VERY
STRONG SHEAR /ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST FEW KMS/ SUGGESTS EVEN MODEST
HEATING WILL INCREASE RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS- INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH THIS LEADING ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY
STORMS...NEARER THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK INTO TX...AS MODEST
HEATING/INSTABILITY OCCURS WITHIN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE SFC-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
150-250 M2/S2...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 40 KT. GIVEN LARGE LOW
LEVEL RH/LOW LCLS AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS CAN EVOLVE. ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK.
..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/06/2008
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