SWODY2
SPC AC 060530
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL REMAIN UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO
THE SRN PLAINS THAT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS
TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NWD AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE NWD
THROUGH ERN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH.
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW IN PLACE OVER
SOUTH TX AND THE NWRN GULF WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH LA...SRN AR AND
PARTS OF MS. HOWEVER...NWD EXTENT OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED BY SELY TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM CP HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN STATES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL ALONG MUCH OF MOIST AXIS. HOWEVER...A FEW CLOUD BREAKS MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF LA AND SRN MS WHERE MLCAPE COULD
APPROACH 1000 J/KG. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD
DURING THE DAY...THE LARGER 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WRN TN AND MID MS VALLEY WHERE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL BE
MORE LIMITED. FARTHER SOUTH...BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS
OF AR INTO LA AND MS.
OTHER STORMS MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AR INTO
SWRN MO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THERMAL TROUGH WHERE SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES MAY EXIST...AND WHERE DRY SLOT IN WAKE OF EARLY
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY IF LOW
CLOUDS MIX OUT. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
GIVEN EXPECTED MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF EARLY STORMS...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
APPEAR JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 10/06/2008
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