SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062249
TXZ000-OKZ000-070045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...CENTRAL/SRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062249Z - 070045Z
RATHER WIDELY DISPERSED SVR POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH HAIL
BEING MAIN THREAT AND ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SVR CRITERIA ALSO
POSSIBLE. THREAT FCST TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02Z. WW HAS NOT BEEN
ISSUED SO FAR BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION AND WIDE
DISPERSION OF SVR THREAT...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
CENTRAL/SRN OK DURING NEXT FEW HOURS IN LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND
NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE EVIDENT IN SFC
STREAMLINE ANALYSES. COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY ANALYZED JUST W OF
THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN OK -- MAY CATCH UP AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ASCENT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GREAT MAJORITY OF BUOYANCY
IN LOWER HALF OF TROPOSPHERE BELOW WARM LAYER EVIDENT AROUND 400-450
MB. MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG IS ANALYZED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF OK
ACTIVITY AND DECREASING BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT AS
ACTIVITY MOVES OVER MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. GAP BETWEEN
THIS ACTIVITY AND ONGOING/WIDELY SCATTERED STG-SVR CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL TX MAY FILL SOMEWHAT THROUGH REMAINDER LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIABATIC COOLING STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER
ENOUGH TO REMOVE SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS.
MEANWHILE...HOWEVER...BUOYANT LATER STRENGTHENS/DEEPENS WITH SWD
EXTENT...MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG EVIDENT ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX. BEST
BUOYANCY/SHEAR OVERLAP WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NE TX AND RED
RIVER REGION.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SVR WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAXIMIZED AT 45-50 KT OVER N-CENTRAL TX...DIMINISHING TO 25-30
KT N-CENTRAL/NERN OK. RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS NEAR AND E OF
I-35 CORRIDOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND ENHANCED
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
DECOUPLE...ALTHOUGH WEAK SPEEDS IN LOWEST 3 KM LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE.
EXPECT INTERMITTENT/MESSY SUPERCELLULAR AND HYBRID MULTICELL
STRUCTURES IN SUPPORT OF EPISODIC LARGE HAIL.
..EDWARDS.. 10/06/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
31859915 34749835 35989794 36249690 35569627 32859551
31549631 30819809 31069871
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