Tuesday, February 24, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241618
SWODY1
SPC AC 241614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS HAS LOST AMPLITUDE DURING THE PAST
1-2 DAYS...AND WILL BE LARGELY ZONAL THROUGH TOMORROW. WITHIN THE
NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT.
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM ARE PRESENT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA...AND VERY
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
SRN MT. HOWEVER...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE SHOULD REMAIN TOO
LIMITED TO JUSTIFY ADDING AN OUTLOOK AREA.

ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF SHALLOW MID LEVEL CONVECTION OVER SE KS/SW MO
PRECEDES A LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM SPEED MAX MOVING ESEWD OVER
KS/OK. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR
LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..THOMPSON.. 02/24/2009

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