SWODY2
SPC AC 101725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN U.S...
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...APPROACHING 80KT...WILL EJECT
NEWD ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE TO THE OUTER BANKS REGION OF NC AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS AFFILIATED UPPER LOW OPENS IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MS VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...SOMEWHAT
VEERED BUT OTHERWISE STRONG LLJ WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ENSURING A ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION RETREATS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA BY EARLY
EVENING. WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MINIMAL AS SFC DEW POINTS STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...AND THIS WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR COASTAL REGIONS.
DESPITE THE MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN IT WOULD SEEM THAT MEAGER LAPSE
RATES SHOULD RESTRICT MUCAPE VALUES TO ROUGHLY 500 J/KG...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG A NARROW AXIS DIRECTLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
GIVEN THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE
NEAR-COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED
SOMEWHAT WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
SEEM LESS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
EVOLVES WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHOULD DO SO WITHIN A VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY REGIME. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
THE GREATEST INTENSITY SHOULD BE COLOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROVE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND GUSTS. SWD EXTENT OF FRONTAL CONVECTION
COULD EASILY DEVELOP INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA BEFORE CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND UPDRAFTS BECOME MORE LIKELY TO LAG THE WIND SHIFT.
..DARROW.. 01/10/2012
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