MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0012

ACUS11 KWNS 102154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102154
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-102330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SCNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102154Z - 102330Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN LA AND
SCNTRL MO THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LA WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SE LA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED FROM NRN MS EWD ACROSS NRN AL. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC
LOW...THE WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF MS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A STRONGLY SHEARED
WIND PROFILE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB
TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C/ AND MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED MAINLY DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 01/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31438918 32038885 32718873 33328901 33578976 33279093
33009137 32409152 31259118 30439075 30309022 30928960
31438918

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