SWOD48
SPC AC 020846
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...
WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW... MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...A BLOCKING MID-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH CENTER DOWNSTREAM
...ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...APPEARS LIKELY
TO IMPEDE A CONTINUING EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING ACROSS CANADA...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM...THE BULK OF
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW/TROUGH MAY GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...AROUND THE RIDGE...INTO CANADA LATE
THIS COMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO CONFINE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE HIGHER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WHILE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT STILL APPEARS LOW.
..KERR.. 10/02/2011
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