SWODY2
SPC AC 020502
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...WILL PROGRESS INLAND
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED
TO DIG ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT... AS THE
NORTHERN PORTION LIFTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IN ADVANCE OF A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE DIGGING
WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT
DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS THE U.S. PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE A
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AND
ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS AND TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON/JAMES
BAY REGION. MODELS APPEAR IN INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT THIS LATTER
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW EAST NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. CUT-OFF LOW...WITH THE
CIRCULATION CENTER NOW APPEARING LIKELY TO SHIFT OFF NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.
THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...COUPLED WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRESENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ROCKIES...WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT STILL PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..KERR.. 10/02/2011
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