SWODY2
SPC AC 140501
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DISCUSSION...
ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY FRIDAY AND
SHIFT EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BELT
OF STRONGER WLYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE U.S. FROM
THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER BAJA CA MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EWD.
...SRN AZ AND SRN CA...
CIRCULATION AROUND UPPER LOW WILL ADVECT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
NWWD THROUGH SRN AZ. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...BUT COOL AIR ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG IN
THIS REGION. HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY
LAYERS...ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STORMS.
...MID ATLANTIC AREA...
POCKET OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/THERMAL TROUGH NORTH OF SEWD ADVANCING
JET STREAK DROPPING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DIABATIC
WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
PARTS OF VA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH VA
WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ATTENDING THE JET STREAK. INSTABILITY WILL
BE MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES DURING THE DAY.
..DIAL.. 10/14/2010
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