SWODY2
SPC AC 141625
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE NRN EXTENT OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD
THROUGH THE UPPER OH/TN VALLEYS...WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SEWD ACROSS VA/NC DURING DAY 2 WILL REINFORCE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
ERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE ERN SEABOARD
BY 12Z SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NW/BC LATE DAY 1 WILL TRACK EWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER
ON FRIDAY...BREAKING DOWN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WRN RIDGE. AS THIS
OCCURS...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD FROM NRN BAJA
TOWARD SRN AZ.
...SRN AZ AND SERN CA...
MODELS MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION/HIGH-BASED TSTMS ACROSS
SRN AZ INTO SERN CA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE BAJA LOW WILL ADVECT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
NWWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND SRN CA. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...COOL AIR ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AT
OR BELOW 500 J/KG IN THIS REGION. HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND AN INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS
COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.
...MID ATLANTIC AREA...
A POCKET OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C PER KM/ NORTH OF
SEWD ADVANCING JET STREAK DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE ERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF VA/NRN NC.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THESE STATES WITHIN
THE ZONE OF ASCENT ATTENDING THE JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE DAY.
..PETERS.. 10/14/2010
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