SWODY1
SPC AC 141601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN EXTREME SERN VA AND ERN
NC...
...ERN NC/EXTREME SERN VA...
UPPER TROUGH...SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...WILL SHIFT ENEWD
AND GRADUALLY BECOME NEGATIVELY TITLED...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET
MAX AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHIFTING SEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OH VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPALACHIANS TROUGH
WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN VA/NC AT MID MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE EWD
OFFSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED ...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD
OCCUR OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-MENTIONED FEATURES EXTENDED FROM NEAR ORF
TO SOUTH OF GSB AT 1530Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DESPITE LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE STORMS...MLCAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING
STRONGER HEATING. WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM LINES/CELLS....WEAK AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG
WITH THE POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A
FEW HAILSTONES WITH DIAMETERS FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.
..IMY/GARNER.. 10/14/2010
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