SWOD48
SPC AC 050814
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4-5 MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE SERN
STATES WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AS WELL AS FAIRLY
LARGE SPREADS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
BY DAY 5 UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO PROGRESSIVE ZONAL WITH A BELT
OF STRONG WLYS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WELL REMOVED FROM
RESERVOIR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DAY 6 AND BEYOND MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE UPPER
PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG MREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S.
WHILE THE GFS AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE MUCH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION.
..DIAL.. 10/05/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment