SWODY3
SPC AC 050725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY...BECOMING
CUTOFF FROM MAIN BRANCH OF POLAR WLYS. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH DISPERSIVE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
EARLY TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY SWD THROUGH ERN AND S TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY REGIONS...
NARROW AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN THIS ZONE WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
WEAK CAPPING WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL
BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. SOMEWHAT
GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF LA WHERE RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING IS MORE LIKELY...BUT
EVEN IN THIS REGION WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB
1000 J/KG. THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY OVER A PORTION OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE ANTICIPATED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL.. 10/05/2008
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