SWODY1
SPC AC 051243
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONGEST ENERGY EVIDENT THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
WILL AMPLIFY WRN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH AND SHIFT TROUGH EWD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP ASCENT
WILL SUSTAIN LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...INHIBITING INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS 45-55
KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET EJECTS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...WITH
SECONDARY SSWLY SPEED MAX DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN INTO N-CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT.
ONGOING AREA OF MOIST CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL/NWRN TX THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS AS SURFACE
HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. APPEARS MORE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT WILL AWAIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN NM/FAR WRN TX
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LEE TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F WITHIN SSELY UPSLOPE
FLOW...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AS
TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE MID 70S BY 21Z. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BUILD UPSCALE INTO A LARGER
CLUSTER/MCS AS DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREADS SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
OVERWHELM LEE TROUGH AND PUSH EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING
LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO COULD DEVELOP WITH MORE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS STORMS LOSE FEED OF MODEST
INSTABILITY.
..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/05/2008
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