SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052301
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-060100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W/NW TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 911...
VALID 052301Z - 060100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 911
CONTINUES.
CONTINUE WW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE OVER FAR W
TX...INITIALLY NEAR INK-MRF AXIS AT 2230Z. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS NARROW PLUME OF FAVORABLE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHIFTS E OF PRESENT WW...AND LLJ INTENSIFIES
ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
MARTIN...SERN ANDREWS AND NWRN ECTOR COUNTY...EXTENDING INTO SFC LOW
NW MAF. MOST FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN S OF THIS
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED WAA/BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH TSTMS JUST TO ITS N.
MOST FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES...WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER PECOS
VALLEY REGIONS...AHEAD OF FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. 45 KT GUST WAS
MEASURED AT PEQ AT 2225Z...AND STG-SVR GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH THAT LINE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS UNTIL FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER
DIABATICALLY STABILIZES. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN GREATEST
WITH RELATIVELY DISCRETE STORMS...INCLUDING PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
MOVING ENEWD FROM CRANE TOWARD NWRN UPTON/SRN MIDLAND COUNTIES.
FARTHER NE..LINE OF TSTMS HAS BEEN ORGANIZING SLOWLY ACROSS SERN
PANHANDLE SWD INTO DICKENS COUNTY IN NERN PORTION WW. ACTIVITY IS
MOVING INTO RAIN-STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WAA
AND WEAK SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST TEMPORARY
INTENSIFICATION -- PARTICULARLY ON SRN END WHERE OUTFLOW AIR FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY IS MOST EASILY MIXED/MODIFIED. NARROW CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER HEATING AND AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE CORRESPONDS
TO SFC THETAE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CDS SSWWD...SUPPORTING
500-800 J/KG MLCAPE IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...WHICH ALSO SHOW BACKING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN MIDLEVELS SUITABLE FOR MAINTAINING LARGELY
LINEAR ORGANIZATION. LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITH STG-SVR GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MRGL SVR HAIL.
..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
30080409 30890344 32010312 33190218 33630117 34140082
34870091 35470040 35619963 34689926 32459992 30880135
30270349
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