SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051811
TXZ000-NMZ000-052015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...W TX AND EXTREME SE NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051811Z - 052015Z
TSTMS WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF SE NM/W TX THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. WW WILL
BE PSBL OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTN.
A STRONG MID-LVL WAVE APPEARS TO BE TURNING E IN WRN NM EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING INTO ERN
NM AND FAR W TX. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ALONG THE ASSOCD COLD
FRONT IN SCNTRL NM AND WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS
FAR SE NM AND THE TX PNHDL.
LARGE CANOPY OF CLOUDS/PCPN HAVE MITIGATED HEATING GENERALLY N OF
ROUTE 180 TODAY...WITH STRONGER LOW-LVL WARMING ALONG/S OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LWR-MID 70S AS OF
17Z. THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO MIX
OUT...CONTINUED MODEST HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG
OVER THE TRANSPECOS...SERN PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY REGIONS BY
MID-AFTN.
AS THE MID-LVL WAVE TRANSLATES EWD...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY FROM THE TX PNHDL SWWD INTO SE NM...THEN SPREAD AND/OR
DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF SW/WCNTRL TX BY LATE AFTN.
BACKING MID-LVL WIND PROFILE...ESPECIALLY IN THE TX PNHDL/S PLAINS
WILL FAVOR EMBEDDED...MODEST INTENSITY LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN A MORE
GENERAL SHOWER AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE RISKS FOR ISOLD
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE HIGHEST SVR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...WILL EVOLVE FARTHER S FROM
ROUGHLY SEMINOLE-GUTHRIE SWD WHERE MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WSW MID-LVL WINDS OF 50-55 KTS WILL
BOOST BULK SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR WDLY SCTD SUPERCELLS MIXED WITH
LINEAR SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SVR THREATS...BUT A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
MATURING...MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN/CNTRL TRANSPECOS REGION THROUGH LATE AFTN.
..RACY.. 10/05/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
29970297 30740338 31690378 32900499 34010440 34480256
35230173 35050051 33640030 32400037 31260068 29750244
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