WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 911

WWUS20 KWNS 051913
SEL1
SPC WW 051913
NMZ000-TXZ000-060200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MARFA TEXAS TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIG SPRING
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD INTO FAR W
TX AND SE NM AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W
CENTRAL TX AND SE NM IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT...WHILE
CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN EXTENSIVE N-S BAND
BY THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF/ISOLATED
GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...THOMPSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.