SWODY2
SPC AC 300541
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2008
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY TWO PERIOD WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE ORE AND NRN/CNTRL
CA COASTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL TRANSLATE SSEWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING
THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS.
...OZARK PLATEAU...
A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COUPLED WITH AN AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FRIDAY WITH MUCAPE OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THIS
DESTABILIZATION IN CONCERT WITH DCVA IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW KINEMATIC FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LAG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE WEST AND NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGH WHERE 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -20 C
ARE FORECAST. WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME
PARTICULARLY STEEP...THESE COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING /NAMELY IN THE MIDLEVELS/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TSTMS EMBEDDED
IN LARGER-SCALE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
..MEAD.. 10/30/2008
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