ACUS03 KWNS 160828
SWODY3
SPC AC 160827
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD/WEAK CYCLONE OVER SERN CONUS DAY-2 SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE
EWD/OFFSHORE OVER ATLC THIS PERIOD. FRONTAL-WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE GA/NERN FL WILL LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE REMAINING
QUASISTATIONARY OFFSHORE GA/CAROLINAS...BUT MOVING SEWD AGAIN PAST
SRN FL. AT OPPOSITE CORNER OF CONUS...NWRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK WILL MOVE INLAND/NEWD AND
DEAMPLIFY...LEAVING BEHIND FIELD OF GENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW JUXTAPOSED
WITH HEIGHT RISES. GEN SWLY FLOW PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED/WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CHARACTERIZE GREAT PLAINS AND ROCKIES...BECOMING
MORE DIFLUENT AND ZONAL OVER SRN PLAINS AND SW TX.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO TRANS-PECOS/BIG BEND REGIONS...
BENEATH SWLY MID-UPPER FLOW...EXPECT LEE TROUGH INTENSIFICATION OVER
HIGH PLAINS AND RELATED PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA TO DEVELOP FROM W TX
TO UPPER MS VALLEY. MOST OF THIS WAA PLUME WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR EARLY-STAGE/MRGL MOISTURE
RETURN ABOVE SFC AND ACROSS SW TX/SERN NM. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ENOUGH MOISTENING IN 600-800 MB LAYER DURING 18/15Z-19/06Z TIME
FRAME TO SUPPORT MUCAPE IN 50-150 J/KG RANGE...EXTENDING MRGLLY
ABOVE -20 DEG C THERMAL LEVEL IN SOME LOCALES. AS SUCH...TRANSIENT
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF MOSTLY LIGHT-MDT
PRECIP. PROSPECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MRGL FOR GEN TSTM OUTLOOK.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE EACH WILL BE TOO SCANT FOR SVR THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2012
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