DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160947
SWOD48
SPC AC 160947

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE AND SEASONALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS FCST OVER CONUS
THROUGH DAY-4/19TH-20TH...WITH SOME VERSION OF AMPLIFIED ERN-CONUS
TROUGHING DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR MAY TRAVERSE PORTIONS SRN PLAINS DAY-4...ATOP
RETURN-FLOW REGIME EMANATING FROM IMMATURELY MODIFIED GULF
TRAJECTORIES. RESULTING 50S TO NEAR 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS OVER N TX
AND PORTIONS OK MAY SUPPORT TSTMS AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-END SVR RISK.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR 30% LINE ATTM.
THEREAFTER...IMPORTANT 500-MB SHORTWAVE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIVERSE IN
PROGS. THIS LEADS TO ONE EXTREME OF DEEP SERN CONUS CYCLONE BY
DAY-6/22ND-23RD IN UKMET AND A FEW MREF MEMBERS...AND STG BUT
POSITIVELY TILTED/OPEN-WAVE PERTURBATION IN ECMWF AND MOST OTHER
MREF INTEGRATIONS. IN EITHER EVENT...PERTURBATION ALOFT SHOULD
OUTRUN ANY FAVORABLE PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE...WITH
SVR POTENTIAL TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.