SWODY2
SPC AC 190558
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS
CA/NV. MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT MUCH WEAKER/BROADER TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE WAVES
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH. IN
BETWEEN...A LARGE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
ROCKIES.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE W COAST STATES
EARLY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH -- ALONG WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM -- WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE WRN STATES. MEANWHILE...WEAKER LOWS -- ONE CROSSING THE
SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD.
...HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX/OH PANHANDLES...
MODEST /MAINLY UPPER 40S/ SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND VICINITY WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO YIELD
VERY MODEST DESTABILIZATION /MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/. AS
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER SERN
CO/NERN NM/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SUBTLE/PASSING UPPER WAVE...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. WHILE SOMEWHAT STRONGER ACROSS NERN CO/SWRN
NEB/NWRN KS...MID-LEVEL WNWLYS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.
HOWEVER...WITH SELYS AT LOW LEVELS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION.
WITH STORMS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER...WILL
INTRODUCE 5% PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST...TO COVER ISOLATED HAIL/WIND
THREAT WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..GOSS.. 04/19/2010
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