SWODY1
SPC AC 050537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST THU MAR 04 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER BELTS OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
LATITUDE PACIFIC SPLIT WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST...BEFORE CONVERGING
ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AND THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...GRADUALLY
EVOLVING INTO A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...AND MERGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. AS THIS OCCURS... GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM ...ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE LIMITED BY A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW
MIGRATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC
COAST...SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NATION...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.
...CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS...
AS FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL BEING
REALIZED SEEMS TO EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING ADVECTS ACROSS AN AXIS OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION WILL GENERALLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S F...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. SO STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT A COUPLE COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.
..KERR/STOPPKOTTE/GARNER.. 03/05/2010
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