SWODY1
SPC AC 051946
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN NEB/WRN KS...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING NEWD AROUND PARENT UPPER SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PIVOT NEWD ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL PARTS OF KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 50-60 KT
/NOTED AS LOW AS 4 KM AGL PER GRENADA CO PROFILER/ WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM EWD/NEWD...ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
HOWEVER...STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE
TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPE
MAY APPROACH 200-400 J/KG.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CONVECTION
OCCURRING WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONTAL SURGES...ONE JUST S OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF ERN CO...AND THE
OTHER OVER FAR SERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LEADING COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER EWD INTO WRN KS.
WITH TIME...A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM PARTS OF SWRN NEB
INTO WRN KS. THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE HAIL /SOME
POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA/ GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY MORE INTENSE TSTMS THAT REMAIN COLOCATED
WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NNEWD ALONG COLD FRONT. HERE...STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COINCIDE WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY.
..MEAD/ROGERS.. 03/05/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0959 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010/
...SWRN NEB/NWRN KS...
AS THE UPPER LOW NWRN CO CONTINUES ENEWD INTO WRN NEB TONIGHT...A
VIGOROUS MID LEVEL S/WV SRN CO/NRN NM WILL ROTATE NEWD AHEAD OF LOW
CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
A 40-45KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO THE LEE TROUGHING ERN CO AHEAD OF THE S/WV TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL MOVING NWD THRU THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...8C/KM OR
GREATER...AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THRU THE 60S IN WRN KS AND
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 40S...MUCAPES WILL STILL ONLY BE ABLE
TO REACH TO AROUND 500 J/KG BY 21Z AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING N/S DRY
LINE FAR WRN KS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECASTED TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM ERN CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AS IT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE IN WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB.
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STRONG UPDRAFT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER SUPPORT AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...THAT
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BRIEFLY ROTATE INCREASING THE THREAT
OF LARGER HAIL AND EVEN A BRIEF FUNNEL AND/OR TORNADO.
CONCERN FOR ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD END BY EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD TOWARD
SCENTRAL NEB/NCENTRAL KS.
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