MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0156

ACUS11 KWNS 052011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052011
KSZ000-NEZ000-052245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 052011Z - 052245Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN NEB BY
21-22Z. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN
WRN NEB SEWD TO A SECONDARY LOW IN SW NEB/NW KS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A DRYLINE THAT CONTINUES SWD THROUGH WRN KS. A COLD FRONT WAS
OBSERVED MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN CO AND EXTREME NWRN KS. A MOIST
AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S IS ADVECTING NWD ALONG A 35+ KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES AOB -20C AT 500 MB
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX EJECTING
NEWD THROUGH ERN CO IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE WRN EDGE OF THE
MOIST AXIS. THIS PROCESS ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN A NARROW AXIS
FROM WRN KS THROUGH SWRN NEB...BUT MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE
DRYLINE BY 22Z AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND AS DEEPER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING VORT MAX OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. EVENTUAL
UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH APPEARS PROBABLE. THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
EVENT.

..DIAL.. 03/05/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38760107 39450112 39930119 40290119 40560065 40300006
39569982 38830015 38650064 38760107

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