DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181236
SWODY1
SPC AC 181234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER NRN BAJA CA HAS BEGUN
ITS EXPECTED TREK TO THE ENE...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW OVER WA/ORE. THE BAJA LOW SHOULD REACH SRN
AZ/NRN SONORA BY THIS EVE...AND WRN-MOST TX AROUND 12Z MON.
OTHERWISE...LARGELY ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE
CNTRL AND ERN U.S.

AT THE SFC...RIDGE NOW IN PLACE OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY SHOULD
EDGE E TO THE S ATLANTIC CST BY EARLY MON...ALLOWING LOW LVL SLY
FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN OVER THE SRN PLNS. A COLD FRONT
MARKING THE NW BORDER OF THE RIDGE WILL ADVANCE S INTO SW KS AND NE
NM BY 12Z MON.

...SWRN STATES...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER CNTRL AND SRN AZ
TODAY...IN MID LVL WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF EJECTING LOW AND BENEATH
ZONE OF STRONGEST UPR DIFFLUENCE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE/DEVELOP
INTO WRN NM BY EVE. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER W...JUST AHEAD OF
MAIN UPR VORT MAX...WHERE 500-MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -24 TO
-28 DEG C. SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND ANY THREAT FOR
SVR HAIL OR WIND.

IT APPEARS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPR SYSTEM WILL FOCUS
OVER NRN MEXICO AND SRN NM/W TX TNGT AND EARLY MON AS THE MAIN UPR
CENTER TEMPORARILY CONSOLIDATES OVER FAR NRN PARTS OF SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA. THIS MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF
CONVECTION/STORMS OVER SRN NM AND FAR W TX TNGT/EARLY MON.

FARTHER E...APPROACH OF UPR SYSTEM WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY
LLJ AND A SEPARATE WAA PLUME FROM W TX TO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE/THETAE TO INCREASE ATOP INCREASINGLY SHALLOW LAYER OF
RESIDUAL CP AIR OVER W TX. A FEW EPISODES/AREAS OF ELEVATED STORMS
MAY FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT MORE
LIKELY TNGT THROUGH EARLY MON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREA AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WITH ASSOCIATED
BUOYANCY LIKELY REMAINING TOO WEAK TO POSE A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL.
`

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/18/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.