SWODY1
SPC AC 171956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2011
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NO CHANGES TO PRIOR FORECAST...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
..GUYER.. 12/17/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM WRN CANADA
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF ERN CONUS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EWD
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NW COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
...LOWER CO VALLEY...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL ROTATE AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE...ENHANCING
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18/00Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALIGN WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOISTENING AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE OF
100-200 J/KG AND EL HEIGHTS EXTENDING ABOVE THE -20 DEGREE C
ISOTHERM. AS SUCH...A GENERAL TSTM AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...ELEVATED TSTM POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
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