MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2038

ACUS11 KWNS 080356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080355
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-080800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CST SUN NOV 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NH AND WRN MAINE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 080355Z - 080800Z

WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD WWD THROUGH PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN MAINE. FROM SWRN MAINE
INTO NRN NH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF SLEET
AND SNOW AFTER 05Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER 09Z.
RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY BETWEEN .05 AND .1 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG VORT MAX PIVOTING NWWD
TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX. THE ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE IS RESULTING IN NLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL SHIFT WWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND AS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS WWD. WET BULB
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A WINTRY MIX SHOULD TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OVER WRN MAINE AS WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER INCREASES. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NH PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A
MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AFTER 05Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN AFTER 09Z. WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM 30-32 F ARE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT. FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND PERSISTENT WITHIN THE VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR
COULD REMAIN TRAPPED.

..DIAL.. 11/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 47016869 45926925 44737031 43877116 43727164 44067191
44647154 45887028 47056954 47016869

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