SWODY2
SPC AC 070443
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE MID
LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC IS UNDERWAY...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS
THE PACIFIC COAST...THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES BY
EARLY TUESDAY. SHORTER WAVELENGTH IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE REMAIN A SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT
ONE VIGOROUS PERTURBATION MAY DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH A LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE NOW
PROGGED TO LINGER NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS. THE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO HINDER OR SLOW
SUBSTANTIVE GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND
RETURN FLOW. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NATION...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
LOW-LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...WHEN COUPLED WITH
STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF A -24 TO -30C
500 MB COLD CORE...TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
AT LEAST WEAK TO MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO EXTEND THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
..KERR.. 11/07/2010
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