SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291703
TXZ000-291800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291703Z - 291800Z
LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGEST UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO EJECT SLOWLY
ENEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION. A VERY WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS
UPPER SYSTEM. PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE BIG BEND HAS AIDED
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF
7 C/KM...INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED BUOYANCY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. IT
APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR MAINTAINING SUSTAINED
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DRIFTING NWD TOWARD THE NM
BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
.DARROW.. 04/29/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
30620611 31760577 31910349 30810119 29230119 29100349
30180464
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