SWODY3
SPC AC 290727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY....
..SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS RIDGE BUILDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN OVER NERN INDIANA/SWRN LOWER MI AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND MOVE EWD INTO NRN NJ BY
2/12Z...TAKING COLD FRONT SSEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
..CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SWRN PA...
WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS NRN OH INTO CENTRAL PA.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH SFC DEW
POINTS ESTIMATED IN THE LOW/MID 60S. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80...AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S WOULD GIVE MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. WITH WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AT 30-40 KT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WNWLY 30-50 KT MID
LEVEL FLOW...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED SUPPORTING STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7.5C/KM BY AFTERNOON
WITH SFC-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 250 M2/S2.
THIS ALSO SUPPORTS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING
THIS PERIOD.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THRU THE DAY1 AND DAY2
PERIODS IS EXPECTED TO FILL GRADUALLY AS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN BAJA AND NWRN MEXICO. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING MAY PRESENT SUFFICIENT
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA.
.MCCARTHY.. 04/29/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment